Payrolls and consumer spending did vastly surprise to the upside towards the end of Q3, but it didn't make a dent in consumer confidence as the good news was met with a macroeconomic reality check. With Student loan repayments slated to begin soon, meaning 13.6% of the total population will have to take more out of their budget, a percentage that rises when considering labor force numbers. And with stubborn inflation primarily driven by rents, food, and gas, which will be even more volatile following the Israel-Hamas war, essential costs are digging into consumers' pockets more than they can spend on discrentionary items. While travel and other services are attractive as they normalize towards 2019 levels, the rebound will be short-lived as it faces similar headwinds.